New polling indicates that former Vice President Joe Biden’s early lead among 2020 Democrat candidates may not be as strong as some had initially hoped.
Despite having never officially announced his candidacy, Biden enjoyed a wide lead among his colleagues who were expected to or had already announced their own intentions to seek the White House in the upcoming election, however, that appears to be waning.
With the 2020 field of Democrat candidates appearing far larger and more diverse than the 2016 offerings, candidates such as Biden and Bernie Sanders may not prove to be the powerhouse contenders many believed them to be.
Biden, who hasn’t formally made a decision regarding his 2020 plans, has repeatedly touted the possibility of opposing President Trump while implying that he is the only Democrat capable of winning as the 2020 election draws ever nearer.
As newcomers such as Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and others continue to announce their own 2020 plans, Biden’s likelihood of mounting a campaign seem smaller.
Joe Biden’s big lead in early Democratic 2020 polling might be a bunch of malarkey.
While most polls show the former vice president hovering around 30 percent of the Democratic primary vote, well ahead of second-place Sen. Bernie Sanders, two recent surveys paint a starkly different picture — raising the question of whether Biden is a real front-runner or just has big name-recognition. Those polls show far more Democratic voters undecided about which candidate to support, and they pegged Biden’s backing at a much less intimidating 9 to 12 percent.
The results are so varied partly thanks to different methodological choices by the pollsters. But parsing the results is more than an academic exercise: While Biden weighs a third campaign for the presidency, he and his allies must consider whether polls a year before primary season really reflect Biden’s true strength — and his potential rivals have to calculate whether the former vice president could overwhelm lesser-known challengers in 2020.
“These polls are today’s reality,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “And sometimes, today’s reality holds until tomorrow and all the way until next year. And other times, today’s reality changes. Primaries are like that.”
Today, the polling signs are that “it’s a very open field,” said Steen Kirby, a campaigns and data specialist with Bold Blue Campaigns, a Democratic firm. “People are weighing their options. I think the reason that so many people are getting in is because this is a 1-to-15 percent spread, not a 1-to-30 percent spread. It’s very different from 2016, when Hillary Clinton was at 40 or 50 percent.”